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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.