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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."