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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.