Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
